by Tony Gray
posted: 04 March 2022

Nobody is happy with Russia's invasion of Ukraine but sanctions are not the way to go. Either send in troops or don't but trying to use money to end war is worse than useless. It may prove counter-productive by causing much more tragedy than what's going on in Ukraine right now.

In June 1941, the United States put an embargo on Japan and seized all their assets in America. Historians consider the lack of resources to maintain the Japanese economy as a prime reason behind the sneak attack on Pearl Harbor, on December 7, 1941.

The Japanese wanted to capture Pacific Ocean island like the Phillipines to exploit their minerals and crops but knew the U.S. Navy would interfere with their plans so they devised a plan to neutralize that threat.

Yes, we prevailed but only after four years of fighting that killed more than 75 million people and left many cities in ruins. The death toll would have been even higher if Truman hadn't dropped nuclear bombs on two Japanese cities.

Do you care enough about Ukraine that you are willing to start World War III? Is it worth sending hundreds of thousands of Americans to die for them? That's where the total ban on Russia and the seizing of its assets may lead.

Russia has nearly $1 trillion worth of foreign currency and precious metals such as gold and silver in the United States and Europe, which have been seized by us and EU countries. France just seized a multi-million dollar yacht belonging to a newly-sanctioned oligarch.

Western politicians are trying to get the tail to wag the dog and make it look like they are being tough on Russia. Ask yourself this, though: do you think Russian President Vladimir Putin cares what any oligarch thinks?

Mao Tse-Tung said power comes from the barrel of a gun. Who controls Russia's military? Putin? Or, the oligarchs? Exactly. So, how likely is it that crimping their lifestyle will make Putin call of the Ukraine invasion?

It's the national equivalence of "liking" Ukraine posts on social media. They make people feel good, like they are contributing to a good cause and helping fight the good fight.

Unless other nations are willing to put boots on the ground, the invasion of Ukraine will only stop when Putin's goals are met. It is not clear what they are but Ukraine's people -- even with all the weapons the Western countries have been supplying -- will not be able to withstand the might of Russia's military.

Conquering a country is not the same as holding a country, right enough, but that is a bridge to cross that we have not come to yet.

The comprehenensive banning of Russia and its citizens, along with the widespread seizure of their property and wealth, is likely to help Putin because it fits his narrative that the U.S. and other Western countries have it in for the Russian people. So, they may band together in solidarity against what he will portray as oppressors. And, since he controls the media in his country, who's to say different?

Oil is over $100 a barrel and will likely stay that way for a long time so the whole world will pay more for gas and all the things that use gas to get produced and transported, which is almost everything. So, don't expect inflation to get better any time soon.

Russia and Ukraine are two of the biggest world-wide exporters of grain. Once Russian conquers Ukraine, a ban on commerce with them means -- at best -- higher food prices around the world and -- at worst -- a 50 percent cut in the amount of food available. Is people dying from hunger in third world countries more palatable than Ukrainians dying from fighting invading Russians?

The U.S. dollar is the strongest currency in the world because so many other countries buy dollars because of its safety. What happens if other countries stop feeling the dollar is safe because a future president may, on a whim, seize all their foreign reserves in Federal Reserve banks? Do they stop buying dollars, which lowers the value of our currency and turns the dollar into fiat currency like the Italian lira?

Europe, in general, gets 50 percent of its energy from Russian gas. Germany depends on Russian gas for 70 percent of their energy since they committed to closing the last of their nuclear power plants by December 2022. If Putin can't spend any of the money they get paid for sending gas to Europe, is it that hard to imagine him turning the valve off in October. No energy to run factories or heat homes just as Winter is kicking into high gear.

Putting all those other things aside, the real worry is that we try so hard to stick it to Putin that he feels he has nothing to lose by invading Europe or, God forbid, start launching nukes at the U.S.

So, again: is it worth it? I don't think so. President Biden should either send troops in to help Ukraine fight off the Russians or content himself with speeches in the U.N.